Recent comments in /f/wallstreetbets

Middle_Name-Danger t1_je8h2nj wrote

Reply to comment by megaultraman in Subprime is back on the menu boys! by megaultraman

Okay, alternate ending, the credit crunch never comes, but inflation is unrelenting. Borrowers whose wages cannot keep pace with inflation have to make hard decisions about how to allocate their limited capital. They need a car to get to work, so they prioritize that expense. Now the vehicle that they paid far too much for relative to its age and condition needs costly repairs that they cannot afford, it no longer has utility as transportation, so paying the loan is no longer a priority. They’re too upside down to trade it, so they get approved for a second auto loan because the lenders are chasing yield. Now they can default on the first loan and let the first bank take the loss.

The average auto loan written in the past 2.5 years is worthless. The risk adjusted return is negative. What do balance sheets look like if car notes are treated as liabilities rather than assets?

I’m drunk and rambling, but that doesn’t mean I’m wrong.

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H0lland0ats t1_je8gyfh wrote

Reply to comment by TedMerTed in BlackRock warns that investors are making a mistake by betting on the Fed to cut rates by uslvdslv

This will come as a big surprise to you but the Feds mandate isn't "pump the stock market with cheap debt so WSB user TedMerTed can get free money".

The Feds only real job is manage inflation and employment from a macroeconomic level. Everything else should be coming from congress.

The vast majority of the "growth" the past decade has been finacialization. Companies have borrowed like never before in history to buy back shares, and take advantage of QE to its max. Very few companies are truly innovating and the ones that are, are doing it so incredibly inefficiently.

Bring back the evolutionary pressure of high rates. Last time they actually started making decent American cars again!

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Themailhag t1_je8gp7r wrote

Reply to comment by erickssm in NVDA bull gains > NVDA bear poverty. by NaNaNaNaNaNaNaNaNa65

Its only up “recently”because of the fed money injection. Sure it was uptrended but not like this. Point is that money will rotate out. And nvda is vastly more over priced now than back when it ran up to 340. It wont hit 340 during this rally. The question becomes what is that magic top number? 272? 280? 300? And once investers realize the rug is coming you’re going down very quickly

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Highzenbrrg t1_je8gn2r wrote

Reply to comment by dsidnt in Stagflation 2023: The Looming Economic Nightmare You Can't Afford to Ignore by Wega58

Oh, a fellow cult wine bro. Just had their Cailloux. Bionic Frog's definitely for special occasions. I've only had one of their bionic frogs (02') and it was on another level. Didn't even taste like wine anymore.

Like if Rick Sanches made it on Gazorpazorp.

Can't wait to pop my 17' 'god only knows' grenache.

I like Cayuse because it's the bridge between conventional wine and natural wine in the PNW (and maybe even the US). Critics scoring it 100 and saying they don't like biodynamic wines, yet with Cayuse, they make an exception.

Cheers!

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Special_Various t1_je8gl7i wrote

Reply to A few lucky coinflips... by silverwind18

You know what date is on this coin? No. 1958. It's been traveling twenty-two years to get here. And now it's here. And it's either heads or tails. And you have to say. Call it.

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d3nv3rite t1_je8gj3i wrote

Reply to comment by Paradox68 in Anyone else think AMZN is going to pop off tomorrow? by Paradox68

Do you work for Amazon? I am a consultant hired by Fortune 500 companies to help them plan layoffs. You would be surprised how bloated some companies got during the last few years, as hiring shortages caused them to hoard talent. Many of the positions that should be eliminated include excess layers of management. Did you know Amazon has 12 layers of management between an hourly worker & the CEO? That is a lot of "middle management" that don't create value to customers, but instead spend their time in meetings with other middle managers. These administrative and program management roles can actually slow the organization down because the chain of approvals gets too big for decision-making to occur in an efficient manner.

I'm not advocating for layoffs, but I equally disagree with the stance that layoffs are bad. The US government shows how disfunctional things can get when there are too many layers of leadership. My fear with Amazon is they have grown into an organization with too many silos & layers that will prevent them from continuing to innovate effectively. It is apparent to the outside that this is happening, as Amazon hasn't rolled out many new things for customers in recent years except on the AWS front. To fix this, Amazon either needs to split up into separate companies or carefully assess their corporate staffing to ensure the ratio of managers vs productive team members makes sense.

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robbinhood69 t1_je8gaml wrote

Reply to comment by thus in $FRC - Puzzle Pieces by PussyBreath007

We cannot infer diddly squat, look at every other regional bank, even silvergate still shows 97% ownership

Idk if europe has different disclosure laws and thats why sweden fessed up but no one else is gonna say shit until long after they r completely our

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diqster t1_je8g2fj wrote

Reply to comment by sf_warriors in $FRC - Puzzle Pieces by PussyBreath007

Sure. Tell me what I already know. Former FRC client. You can get the mortgage then move the deposits somewhere to get a decent rate. I did it. Lots of others clearly did too. First Republic isn't offering anything that even a bottom tier private bank like Chase Private Client already is.

FRC had some nice ineterst only jumbo loans but other banks in the area already offer it. Ironically one of my banks now is SVB lol.

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