The Fed will cut rates only when they realize they have done too much. How will this be good for the stock market?

Kashkari is a known Hawk. I’m sure he’s down BAD on his 30-60 dte puts

There's zero DD in here. It's hopes and dreams. FRC has said they're not selling. FRC employee morale is in the dumps according to the East Bay Times. Bad situation and your boss isn't open to selling? Sounds like a zombie bank. Oh, a zombie bank with a $20b hole in the balance sheet. Nah, I'm betting this one gets wiped out, too.

That said. $FRC is not the smartest way to play this.

If you really do want to play a recovery, buy one of the sector ETFs instead. That way, a bank could still fail, but the sector would survive.

Disclaimer: I am deep in June 2025 $KRE leaps at $35 strike.

Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.

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Not sticky at all. FRC makes you deposit a certain amount of assets in order to get favorable mortgage loan rates. Those deposits get bupkis for interest. Once your loan closes you can move the money elsewhere. They're not going to say you broke the covenant and foreclose on your underwater Bay Area home. Even during good times they would never do that. I know because I did it and asked friends if they did it, and they all said yes everyone does. Only the olds are keeping their money there and after last month I doubt even that's the case.

If FRC was going to implode, it most likely would have gone into receivership 10ish days ago.

Thinkorswim from td Ameritrade

23.7% short fee rate on IBKR for FRC.

I also loved selling puts on SIVB until I didn't. I won't be able to sit down for years.

https://www.itcmarkets.com/hawk-dove-cheat-sheet-2/

FRC is on the east coast, too. New England and Florida.

SVB was solely the Bay Area.

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Obviously. We don't know for sure until the 13Fs fly.

We can infer, however. There has been one large institution that has reportedly divested.Swedish pension fund Alecta. They sold for a $728mil loss. Nobody has followed them, from what I can see. Too bad they didn't hold out for a week.

While a small sample size, the mall by me is always packed...kids love going, and they are building new stores all the time.

There was a massive exit from the market 2 weeks ago with the bank runs. The liquity leaving is leading to even more tight consolidation days.

I think the most interesting thing is that the intraday ranges are around $2 or less until power hour which has seen some pretty good moves

Jamie was supposed to craft a new plan to save the bank, where is it?

They’re def cutting the div in April. Just gotta hope the stock price goes enough to justify the play!

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Lol, this is the way, happy hunting to us all

Hey what website/platform is this?

My business profits when classes of commercial real estate drop in price. If that were the case, I’d happily believe it. But, you’re indefensibly wrong about this. And you’re forecasting 9-10% sovereign debt in developed markets!? I’m not even going to begin to tell you how impossibly stupid that is. Suffice to say it wouldn’t be “risk-free” as nearly every country would default on its debt. I’m done responding to you because you are spouting nonsense that could very easily be invalidated by 5 minutes of reading.

My puts tell me they are correct. My better judgment says hamburgers are delicious.

The true drop happens when the fed starts cutting rates history tells us. So they can accumulate away

How do you know who is hawk dove?

Could be fraud