The big boys “had to bail FRC out anyway”… you’re delusional. Like any other competing bank, they would have gladly let them go to zero. In fact, the prevailing narrative was - MOVE YOUR $$$ TO THE BIG BANKS QUICK!!

They deposited $30B because they saw a low-risk option to make easy interest from a bank with a much better balance sheet than SVB. I don’t understand how you think this equates to FRC is going to zero, especially when you just acknowledged JPM, Citi, BofA, etc are taking on some level of risk. They won’t lose here, and neither will FRC

Which is vital to the function of all social media companies. It’s way different than a bookstore since there is a good chance the book isn’t bullshit or it’s clearly indicated as such.

Yeah jobs is the wildcard. Gdp unless something insane happens wont be a factor in my opinion.

But i am already in puts despite thinking we got one more green day

Eat my dongus you fuckin nerd.

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Imo FRC will rise or fall after 04/13 ER, only an ER can reveal actual balance sheet of theirs. AFAIK It is a very well run and a reputed bank in SF, among all banks in the SF bayarea they are the pay masters and also hire the best talent. They have a very sticky customer base with industry leading customer satisfaction ratings, hence in-spite all this, we hear on social media a lot of their customers are sticking with them through this crisis.

People playing with puts/shorting be mindful that FRC is a very respected name among banking circles(i had worked for their competitors, 2 of the big 3 banks).

It’s not at 0 risk u dummy, it’s just that they’d have had to bail the bank out ANYWAYS

Anyways whatever OP go die on this hill if u want hf going to 0

Any historical data or analysis of how we usually close on the day the collar expires ?

Heard that my brotha

My goal is to get rich or die tryin’

My son uses their online store. Like many others I would contend. 🤷‍♂️

I guess it depends what your goals are.

I ave been slowly adding and continue to do so as i plan to keep it for the next 10-20yrs.

You have not accepted the truth that all commercial real estate is falling in sympathy to macro trends that are not going to be reversed for at least 5 years.

This is a global problem. They main purchasers of REIT products have been foreign investors who are now concerned about the stability of all securitized products (especially commercial real estate).

Diversification works on financial assets when you are trying to mitigate risks that are known (to a degree) but are not inherently ineffective when the underlying fabrics of currency and interest rates are destroying investment models globally.

Investors are not stupid. They see the tide going out. There's zero chance that they will have the patience to hold an illiquid "product" when they can get a risk free return of possible 9%-10% on sovereign backed debt in the near future.

Far East investors are exiting structured products and seeking saftey in "tax payer" backed debt instrument to ride out the coming collapse on both residential and commercial real estate.

The markets are accurately leading indicators of what coming over the horizon. You are seeing 50%-70% collapses (which are only the beginning) as capital moves out all these managed funds.

My view is stay away. You can achieve better risk free returns without swallowing the commercial real estate risk chasing yield.

Always excellent grain harvests. Economy is strong.

See, but as I kind of said in another comment… If you wait for the “dust to settle”, you’re already too late. A lot of people think like that and it’s a very common fallacy. Buy it while it’s still meeting a lot of resistance.

But in the late 70s, early 80s, mortgages were 13%, 15%, even higher. Auto loans were in the low 20s. I don't see interest rates getting that high or even close to it. Color me skeptical of comparisons of today's economy to the stagflation when Eagles were pre-Joe Walsh.

He uses ToS and a custom addon for the indicators which isn't publicly available.

I’m not sure why you think the $30B in deposits from the big banks is all FDIC insured. The Fed has made no such claim. Their stance has been opaque at best. You’re making the assumption the big boys deposited $30B at FRC with zero risk.

I’d imagine you own $0.50 puts then, no? Since $FRC’s demise is a foregone conclusion and all…

if it is any consolation i'm down 3k and it will be 4k by 3/31 if we continue at this rate. 388/390 puts.

Not in the U6 they aren't. And that number is low as shit.

This whole thread is walking people into a trap, which is not very kind since the DD lacks any semblance of even basic knowledge of reference materials

Always a drought.

They’d all rather be depositors than shareholders

Don't bet against an army of very smart people willing to disrupt themselves