Easy: the sellers of bank stocks fled to big cap tech. Almost dollar for dollar the selling in banks = 'd the increase in market cap of the FANNG stocks.

Also, the Fed just injected $1 trillion, that money is going to risk assets. BUT - look at 2007. Bear Stearns died in March and then Lehman didnt go until Fall. In the middle some techs rallied. History repeats itself.

Unemployment rate uses the same math as Chairman Maos grain harvests.

Most adult women actually worked in the 1950s, you're thinking about the 1920s.

And it's ALWAYS in the 60% range because about 1/3rd of the population is always either not of working age or infirm in some sense. This is why we don't judge unemployment against the whole census population.

The fluctuation over 100 years of the workforce participation rate is about 5%, topping off as the baby boomers hit the nadir (that means top) of their working age curve.

Basically, you're complaining about a roughly 4% difference between now and the top in 1998 and hoping no one else is smart enough to realize what you're doing LOL.

Against trend from 2000-2019, the participation rate is actually about 1% OVER projections and that's against 2020 census numbers, so it's an undercount.

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So if they eliminated unemployment, nobody would be looking for a job and the rate would be 0%?

U in Walla Walla, WA? Just had some Cayuse Syrah last night. funky like this market.

and brass nuts

Pretty sure it's because big boys want to derisk their short tech portfolios

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Those who fall off unemployment benefits are not seeking jobs. They are not unemployed.

Senior citizens don't have jobs so should they be counted as unemployed?

No.

Watch the market response to Alibaba splitting into 5 companies. If Amazon does that, we could see a 25% jump from here.

>I agree that the short sellers' thesis on SLG is correct, but I believe that the stock may rebound in the near future. The banking crisis appears to be manageable, and Manhattan remains a vital center of commerce.

It was around 60% in the 1950s when women stayed at home. Now workforce is about 46% women and it is still 60%?

Nice. Thank you for the heads up!

Agree stagflation is bad, but that seems to me a particular phenomenon of the mid-to-late 1970s and not anything to worry about now.

> Employment rate is around 60%

*Hands 5 year olds and 90 year olds shovels to work in the mines because u/Fun-Transition1230 thinks they should be included in employment metrics*

I started a 30dte put play

Interesting. I sold my calls eod intending to sit out tomorrow. If things stay green I may have to load the puts before close

While its not a directional trade... many people join jpm in those SOLD calls... closing in the reds a huge loss

What would happen to the unemployment rate if they changed the amount of time people could collect benefits to 99 weeks like in 2009?

Would we still have a super strong job market with 3% unemployment?

People who get their news from Good Morning America think 3% unemployment = 97% employment.

Algos - no real person is trading. Retail all in 0dte

Don’t be too worried about AWS. It is by far the best Cloud Service Provider and they will own the market with Microsoft second. It is an unbreakable moat. This means they will be able to jack up prices once market is saturated in 10-15 years

Also remember that a good part of their revenue and earnings are not USD. Thus currency plays in with a very strong dollar in 2022

Big fan of your write ups. Why do you suspect the JPM collar to affect the market negatively?