I've heard that before, though I wonder how much of that is just semantics/miscommunication. Like people are saying they can't visualize anything because it's not visualized as clearly and intensely as an actual object in front of them.

> terminators will not kill humanity by 2024 either

Well, what's the point of all this then‽

Toasted and served with a bag of chips?

How much does Reddit pay us for opinions today? Why will companies start doing that tomorrow?

That is one school of thought certainly. There are plenty in academia who argue that maths is fundamental

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There's lot of research into how quantum computers could be used to help train neural networks with lower compute requirements. But I put a very low probability of quantum computing scaling fast enough to be useful at the sizes of models were working at in the near future.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.04255

Hm. I haven't seen "the west needs to win" so much as should be free to participate. Especially if you fear the existential risk of unaligned AGI, it seems counterproductive to intentionally push its development away from your sphere of values.

China, Russia, and probably others: "Suuuure we'll stop if you will" *continue to develop better AI models in secret

It's inevitable. There's no stopping it now, and to try is to allow others to figure it out first.

It does recognize it... Maybe it's a bit finicky. I'm Brazilian and it worked. I put "São Paulo, XXXXX-XXX"

Think they will be hiring noobs? I'd be interested.

Well, they solved that with ChatGPT already, so no issue there. Especially without player dialogue input.

Yeah, I greatly respect him too. I've been exposed to his ideas for years.

Its not that it wouldn't work if we did what he suggests. Its that we can't do it. It's just too easy to replicate for any group with rather modest resources. There are individual buildings that were more expensive than SOTA LLM models.

The toothpaste is out if the tube with transformers and large language models. I don't think most people, even most researchers had any idea that it would be this "easy" to make this much progress in AI. That's why everyone's guesses were 2050+. I've heard eople with PhDs confidently say "not in this century" within the last 5-10 years.

Heck, Ray Kurzweil looks like a conservative or at least median in this current timeline (I never thought I would type that out).

I think it can work, I'm trying to get it working in a game I'm developing at the moment. You have to have a mix of randomness and structured story telling. I literally have to say to ChatGPT, the user is saying xyz, reply to the user but try to work this plot point into your reply.

I'm actually adding ChatGPT NPCs to the Unreal Engine 5 game I'm developing at the moment, it's a rogue like set in a post singularity world, gameplay is similar to Hades so there's plenty of dialogue in the game. at the minute it's difficult to get a model to run on the local PC so I'm using OpenAI's API. There are challenges like latency while you're waiting for the API to return, it's also quite expensive so releasing a free demo of the game is out of the question. It could potentially cost several dollars per user in API fees over the life of the game so that will of course limit your pricing flexibility, you can only reduce the price so much in steam sales etc. I'm hoping though that inference costs will come down by the time the game is finished.

I haven't posted any footage with the GPT dialogue added to the game but I might post it here in a couple of weeks.

OK, if you can verify that it won't become racist or introduce another problem that a AAA game studio won't want in their game, then go for it.

AI will start paying us for our opinions most likely. It’s going to want the truth with a capital T. Tested, trusted, trillions of times. How do you get truth nowadays?

Eh. Skyrim already has generated side-quests. It creates characters for you to go kill, and items for you to steal. I don’t think a little bit of dialogue, whether it fits perfectly or not, would break that much.

Feels like the slope of enlightenment to me because my hype was peaking in 2013 and is just coming out of a trough.

Yes. Exponential functions look like s-curves when applied to reality.

It will probably be funded by billionaire philanthropists and large corporations. I could see Nvidia using this as a way to promote their GP. Musk or Zuck could use it for PR. Even Gates may drop a buck, just to act like he actually cares.

> for everyone to use

This is the part I don't buy. There will be queues and some will be more equal than others.

There is nothing fundamental behind 1+1=2. It's just the language that we use to describe reality as we observe it as humans. And even beyond that, it's cultural: some tribes have "1", "2", "3", "many" math and to them it is as "fundamental" as Integer number system to us. The particular algebra of 1+1=2 was invented by humans (and some other species) because we evolutionary optimized to work with discrete objects to detect threats and such.
I know Plato believed in the existence of numbers or "Ideas" in a realm that transcended the physical world but it's not verifiable so it's just that - a belief.

So children just learn the language of numbers and arithmetic as any other language by training on examples - statistically. There might be some innate training that happened on DNA level so we're predisposition to learn about integers easier but it doesn't make "1+1=2" as something to discover that exists on its own like, say, gravity or fire.

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Only the priesthood of some ML school of thought will get access, as it's usual with such public organizations, where some preemiment members of some specific clergy rule.

Private companies and hackers with better algorithms will run circles around them, if not threatened with bombing their datacenters or jailed by owning forbidden GPUs, that is.