>I also foresee that the 4% rule or even the whole FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) movement will die out once UBI arrives, for obvious reasons.

Maybe, but I'm not so sure. If it does die out, it will be because the kinds of upper-middle class jobs that support the effort disappear. UBI won't be enough to kill it alone. Most FIRE people seem to want to keep those upper-middle class lifestyles. Fewer seem to want to get to $500k in order to live off $20k/year in the rural Midwest for the rest of their lives. UBI will provide for barely more than subsistence living until we get to a post-scarcity economy.

Seen people actually start businesses after they went to a business school. 😂😂😂

Exactly. People keep saying stuff like “AI isn’t dangerous to humans because it has no goals or fears so it wouldn’t act on its own and kill us because of that”. OK, but can it not be prompted to act like it has those things? And if it can simulate those things then who cares if deep down it doesn’t have goals or fears - it is capable of simulating these things.

Same goes like you said about the AI vs LLM distinction. Who cares if it knows what it’s doing if it’s doing these things. It doesn’t stop someone from customer service being laid off if it is just acting like an LLM vs what we think of as AI. It just matters if the angry customer gets the answer that makes them shut up and go away. People need to be more focused on what end results are possible and not semantics on how it gets there.

Given how much has changed, I'm not sure how relevant any pre-GPT3 or even pre-GPT4 opinions are. Even my own opinion 6 months ago looks hilariously conservative and I'm an optimist.

I don't think anyone should be out there making life-changing decisions, but its hard to ignore what's happening.

Don't worry, AI won't be arrogant like them when they inevitably get replaced by it.

ive said exactly this in other posts, but people doubt and mocked it LOL

I literally said to them "im writing this sentence one word at a time just like chatgpt" and its true, there is no difference

theres no underlying fundamental difference in how a mouse brain, dog brain, monkey brain, or human brain works. Its all just on and off switches forming calculations. One bit at a time, 1 word at a time.

chatgpt is sentient already in my opinion, because nobody can prove it isnt, you cant prove im sentient

Robin Hanson is another prominent intellectual of this belief.

See: https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/the-betterness-explosionhtml

And his debate with Yudkowsky: https://youtu.be/TuXl-iidnFY

If you step out of the hypothetical realm, you can see containment is already impossible. GPT-4 was attached to the internet within 10 days of being created, and a norm has certainly been established.

Theoretically it might make some sense to aim for containment (Yudkowsky's AI box experiment would prove otherwise). But in the world we live in, containment is no longer an option.

So what?

As a B school graduate, I feel personally attacked.

No, I just left it out of the whole CV. Each CV has all the sections rewritten for the specific job, except jobs I'm not too worried about; I just send them some Cv for a similar job.

For the answer to the question, I just left it vague and put like "despite personal circumstances," or something like that.

I don't think potential employers are interested in life stories.

If they ask in an interview, I know what to say now though.

The first sentence is true and I agree with you. The second sentence is not. Feral children, those who were cut off from human contact during their developmental years, have been found to be incapable of living normal lives afterwards.

If we're in a massively deflationary cycle and money goes away, it's not going to matter how much you have. There will be a shorter term period of time where it will matter a lot If you believe the doomers

Before I felt Gary was in denial. Right now I have the impression he’s switching rapidly between “LLM will destroy society” and back to denial. I think he will end up as a💯doomer. Eventually.

We are mostly back together now. My parents live with me, but other brother is in another country He never really recovered and blames himself. We call once a month and will visit him hopefully in Christmas.

It was my dad that mostly held us together. When it first happened he became a workaholic and hid at work, but to his credit we needed the money too. But he knew he needed to be there for us and worked hard to hold things together.

its because it takes way more perceived effort and way less people are willing to climb the enormous mountain of working a complex highly educated job.

But anyone can do blue collar work (as long as they are physically able) so the people working those jobs are less refined. They dont have as good soft skills, social skills, etc. But they are still good at solving problems and as you said they are essential.

Ive worked blue and white collar and they both have lots of pros and cons, but white collar is much better once you are experienced in your field

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Every single day people discover new things that they didn't learn from society this increasing the knowledge base. There are zero examples of an intelligence being limited by what trained it.

I'd prefer Skynet style machines.

Yes. Otherwise we'd each need to independently reinvent calculus.

You need to try it out with elevenlabs.

Yes, but often the easiest way to deduce the limits of "what" is understanding the "how".

Moore's law is basically the principal that there use of tools allows one to build better tools. Technology has an exponential curve. It's possible that we run out of the ability to build smaller chips in the current style but 3D chips, light based computing, and quantum computing are examples of how we may be able to take the next step.

There is no good basis for s philosophical arguments that dumb things can't create smart things. We only have a single data point and that is humans. Inorganic matter (or if you want to skip that then single celled organisms) eventually became us. We weren't guided by something smarter than us but arose from dumb materials. ChatGPT has also demonstrated multiple emergent behaviors that were not built into it.

If you went to college you will be more prepared for the new jobs Ai will bring.

>I don’t think people should start living their lives as if it is an absolute certainty that ASI will solve all their problems within the next couple decades

I 100% agree. People should be very skeptical of anyone selling that narrative - it means they want you to be complacent whilst they earn all of the money. Whoever's earning the money has the power. The odds of UBI ever happening are low - or at least far from guaranteed and we should act under the assumption that it won't happen.